Three teams to watch in the second half

Will these teams forge a path to the playoffs?

So much depends upon the second half here for MLB teams returning from the All-Star break.

Trades, variance in performance, and injuries all shape the narrative of their respective playoff races.

Teams have played about 95 games by now, leaving less margin for error in the playoff hunt. Some are still left in the uncertain middle of the pack as teams struggle to differentiate themselves.

Here are three teams that could define the second half of the season.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds were the subject of a budding excitement entering the season, and understandably so.

Their infield potentially looked like this:

1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 2B Matt McLain, SS Elly De La Cruz, 3B Noelvi Marte

Circumstances changed, leaving the Reds reliant on players unexpected to play such crucial roles in their lineup. Santiago Espinal, Stuart Fairchild, and Will Benson are all nice players, but not necessarily everyday starters on a contender.

The Reds have tangible hope, though. First, there will be some returning players throughout the second half.

Noelvi Marte’s recent return from suspension is the most concerning, given his poor performance, but there are still other encouraging notes.

TJ Friedl could offer a welcome boost to the outfield. He’s dealt with injuries all season, leaving the Reds without one of their key catalysts in the lineup.

Matt McLain could return in August, too, after missing nearly a year from injury. McLain’s return alone could be one of the most impactful additions to the Reds lineup.

Even as the Reds dealt with absences from some of their foundational players, two others have specifically caught my eye.

First, Spencer Steer, who is one of my favorite players in baseball. After his excellent 2023 campaign, I expected big things from Steer, who was often left on the outside of discussions about the rising Reds team. But his plate approach and balanced profile give him the potential to be an All-Star talent.

Through the end of May, Steer had a 102 wRC+. Fine, but not what I would have predicted. Since June 1, his performance has been much more in line with what he’s capable of, given his contact ability and discerning eye at the plate.

In 170 plate appearances since then, he’s slashed .271/.335/.510 (131 wRC+). He’s hit nine home runs in that time span, bringing his season total to 15.

He’s tacked on 14 stolen bases, nearly matching his season total from last year.

One fascinating development in Steer’s profile is the increase in contact. While he already worked deep at-bats against pitchers, his in-zone contact rate jump from 85.7% to 90.7% hints toward even more production.

Jonathan India has fulfilled much of the promise he displayed in his 2021 Rookie of the Year run. After two middling offensive years, India, like Steer, has seen a productive plate approach pay off.

India’s on-pace for a career-high .275 batting average, walk rate, and is rated as an above-average defender for the first time.

His bat alone has been one of the key components to the Reds remaining relevant in the playoff race. Since June 1, India has a .341 batting average with five home runs, putting together a 171 wRC+, which ranks fifth among all NL hitters in that time.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The NL West is struggling. The Dodgers are running away with the division, but the remaining contenders have stumbled their way to a competitive yet underwhelming lump of .500 teams.

This gives the reigning National League champs an opportunity to leap ahead in the Wild Card race in the second half.

The most notable character in this story is Corbin Carroll, who was batting .197 with a 65 wRC+ on June 1.

Since then, Carroll has rebounded to a degree, even if the power isn’t there.

In that time, Carroll is hitting .236/.329/.400 (107 wRC+).

That’s not the MVP-caliber production we saw from Carroll last year, but it’s a desperately needed improvement for a lineup that needs Carroll’s impact. His hard-hit rate is up, his strikeout rate is down, and he’s being more selective at the plate.

Will Carroll continue to make these small adjustments until he’s back in form as one of the most electric players in baseball?

The rest of the Diamondbacks core has put together an impressive run as the team finished 10-5 entering the All-Star break.

Over the past 30 days, Ketel Marte (160 wRC+), Eugenio Suarez (146), Christian Walker (145), and Lourdes Gurriel Jr (118) have shown a level of play reminiscent of what we expected from the Diamondbacks as they looked to defend their NL title.

The team has dealt with attrition in their pitching staff, an issue that could be resolved in the second half. Zac Gallen just returned from injury and could be joined by players like Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez.

This is also where I make my obligatory Brandon Pfaadt mention. He’s transformed himself from last year when he was barely hanging on to the MLB roster. Instead, he went on to be a playoff hero and rotation staple. Players like Slade Cecconi and Ryne Nelson have some interesting qualities, but Pfaadt is a much more convincing back-end stalwart.

Los Angeles Dodgers

There aren’t many powerhouses that aren’t struggling right now, oddly enough. The Yankees, Braves, and Dodgers all have their weaknesses.

Perhaps most shocking of these three is the Dodgers, given their offseason activity, budding group of stars in the rotation, and trio of MVP candidates leading off their batting order.

Of course, Mookie Betts will return and hopefully perform without much concern after his injury. The lineup has a great core, but on the fringes of the order, it could stand for an upgrade. Will the Dodgers be aggressive in adding a name like, oh, I don’t know, Bo Bichette? That’s my personal bias in fun-factor.

The pitching is just as much of an enigma for Los Angeles.

The perfect, healthy, performing playoff rotation here is as good as any in baseball. But for the sake of the regular season and securing the best seeding, Los Angeles has dealt with numerous injuries.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was stellar in his first stint in Major League Baseball, but he’s been sidelined since June 15.

Tyler Glasnow’s dealing with a back injury. Bobby Miller, one of my preseason picks as a breakout, was just demoted to the minor leagues. Walker Buehler, Emmet Sheehan, the list goes on of expected contributors who haven’t been part of the rotation.

Will the Dodgers be able to rely upon their young arms to carry them to the playoffs? The team certainly has the quality to get there, as long as their aces are healthy by October. There is a growing corps of youngsters that have been thrust into key roles with the team.

Landon Knack has impressed in a small sample, Justin Wrobleski has had some moments, and the team will now call on River Ryan, who has been dominant in Triple-A this year.

While it’s not necessarily a great concern for the Dodgers’ playoff odds, the adjustments the team has had to make have been fascinating and hint at some of the young pitchers who could make a difference for the Dodgers in years to come.